AI Set to Replace 3 Million UK Jobs by 2035

AI Could Replace 3 Million Low-Skilled Jobs in UK by 2035, Major Report Warns

A new landmark study has revealed that up to 3 million low-skilled jobs in the UK could vanish by 2035 due to the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation. The findings, published by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) as part of its five-year Skills Imperative 2035 project, highlight a dramatic transformation in the UK labour market, with the most vulnerable roles concentrated in administration, customer service, machine operations, and trades.

Image: AI and automation reshaping the UK workforce (Credit: NFER)

Key Findings: The Scale and Scope of Job Displacement

The NFER report, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, projects that between one and three million jobs in declining occupations could disappear by 2035. These roles are primarily low- and mid-skilled, including:

Administrative and secretarial positions
Customer service roles
Machine operators
Trades and manual work

The report notes that the pace of job loss is faster than previously forecast, with automation and AI technologies accelerating the decline. While the UK economy is expected to add 2.3 million new jobs by 2035, these will be unevenly distributed, with a growing demand for highly skilled professionals.

The Skills Gap: A Growing Challenge

The study identifies a critical shortage of Essential Employment Skills (EES), which are increasingly vital for employability in a technology-driven economy. The six key EES are:

Communication
Collaboration
Problem-solving
Organising, planning, and prioritising
Creative thinking
Information literacy

Currently, 3.7 million workers already have substantial shortfalls in these skills, a figure projected to rise to 7 million by 2035 if no action is taken. The report stresses that skills gaps can emerge as early as age five and widen over time, underscoring the need for lifelong learning and early intervention.

Implications for the Workforce and Economy

The displacement of low-skilled jobs could leave many people out of work, particularly those in lower-paid roles. At the same time, a shortage of skilled employees at the top end of the labour market could constrain economic growth. The report calls for a collective response from policymakers, schools, training providers, employers, and workers to address these challenges.

Image: The six Essential Employment Skills for the future workforce (Credit: Nuffield Foundation)

Policy Recommendations and the Path Forward

The NFER report outlines several recommendations to future-proof the UK workforce:

Invest in lifelong learning from cradle to grave, ensuring people possess the necessary skills for life and work.
Early intervention to address skills gaps before they widen.
Collaboration between education providers, employers, and government to align training with future job requirements.
Support for career changers and those in at-risk occupations to transition into new roles.

The report’s findings are particularly relevant given that nearly one million young people in the UK are not in education, employment, or training, and employers are increasingly concerned about job readiness.

Industry Impact and Broader Context

The UK is not alone in facing these challenges. Similar trends are being observed globally, with AI and automation reshaping labour markets in the US, Europe, and Asia. However, the UK’s unique demographic and economic context means that targeted, evidence-based policies are essential to mitigate the impact on vulnerable workers.

The NFER’s Skills Imperative 2035 project is the most significant investment in education research by the Nuffield Foundation to date. Its findings provide a timely and comprehensive roadmap for preparing the UK workforce for the jobs of tomorrow.

Conclusion

The rapid advancement of AI and automation presents both opportunities and challenges for the UK labour market. While new technologies promise increased productivity and economic growth, they also threaten the livelihoods of millions of low-skilled workers. Addressing the skills gap and ensuring a just transition for affected workers will be critical to building a resilient and inclusive economy in the years ahead.

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